In this study, Ben Bronselaer and colleagues established a linear relationship between the heat and carbon uptake of the ocean in response to anthropogenic emissions. This relationship is determined mainly by intrinsic parameters of the Earth system—namely, the ocean carbon buffer capacity, the radiative forcing of carbon dioxide and the carbon inventory of the ocean. The used this relationship to reveal the effect of changes in ocean circulation from carbon dioxide forcing on patterns of ocean warming in both observations and global Earth system models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results demonstrate that historical patterns of ocean warming are shaped by ocean heat redistribution, which CMIP5 models simulate poorly. However, they found that projected patterns of heat storage are primarily dictated by the pre-industrial ocean circulation (and small changes in unresolved ocean processes)—that is, by the patterns of added heat owing to ocean uptake of excess atmospheric heat rather than ocean warming by circulation changes. Climate models show more skill in simulating ocean heat storage by the pre-industrial circulation compared to heat redistribution, indicating that warming patterns of the ocean may become more predictable as the climate warms.