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The authors find evidence in global datasets that risk of armed-conflict outbreak is enhanced by climate-related disaster occurrence in ethnically fractionalized countries. Without finding indications that environmental disasters directly trigger armed conflicts, the results of this work imply that disasters might act as a threat multiplier in several of the world’s most conflict-prone regions.
Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. Schleussnera, C.-F., Donges, J.F., Donner, R.V., Schellnhuber, H.J. PNAS 113(33): 9216–9221. 2016
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