Ethnic divides play a major role in many armed conflicts around the world and might serve as predetermined conflict lines following rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters.The authors find evidence in global datasets that risk of armed-conflict outbreak is enhanced by climate-related disaster occurrence in ethnically fractionalized countries. Without finding indications that environmental disasters directly trigger armed conflicts, the results of this work imply that disasters might act as a threat multiplier in several of the world’s most conflict-prone regions.
Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. Schleussnera, C.-F., Donges, J.F., Donner, R.V., Schellnhuber, H.J. PNAS 113(33): 9216–9221. 2016
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